Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Lugano win on 2026-08-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x345240ee72b6abcc2886d7171988dd09b21e13fff27eeb34726778296743f752
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 66c | 7,156$4,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.45 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…3979backed Yes | 15c | 5,867$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…30aabacked Yes | 45c | 5,794$2,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,605.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 78c | 2,160$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.95 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 21c | 1,766$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.24 | 677 | 56.3%381 W · 296 L | +34.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…9435backed No | 74c | 1,755$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.3 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…b9bdbacked No | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb18…9897backed No | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 36c | 1,001$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.64 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…5782backed No | 26c | 961.53$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 34c | 856.83$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.32 | 772 | 48.8%377 W · 395 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 78c | 848.38$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.98 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…8974backed Yes | 16c | 816$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.19 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 34c | 717.26$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.83 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 35c | 705.69$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.99 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 34c | 637.51$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.61 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Yes | 34c | 620.01$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.8 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 34c | 614.25$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.85 | 1,041 | 48%500 W · 541 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 24c | 419.23$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 35c | 400$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Yes | 32c | 394.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 34c | 367$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.78 | 473 | 42.1%199 W · 274 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 44c | 348$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.08 | 222 | 37.8%84 W · 138 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…cd12backed No | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6457…ed50backed No | 64c | 304.98$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 29c | 275.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 113 | 35.4%40 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 32c | 225$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 341 | 42.8%146 W · 195 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Yes | 8c | 215.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 80c | 202.73$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 17c | 185.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 61c | 164.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…dc9fbacked Yes | 9c | 161.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1031…2febbacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 35c | 130.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 34c | 129.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 79c | 116.89$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091f…672ebacked Yes | 37c | 89.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 20c | 88.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 147 | 49%72 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff41…387abacked Yes | 17c | 84.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…d67ebacked No | 80c | 72.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 15c | 72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd494…bfafbacked No | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfb…8beabacked Yes | 31c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Yes | 23c | 58.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Yes | 33c | 44.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 34c | 40.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9f62backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…9c36backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…56d5backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 68c | 28.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 68c | 26.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed No | 69c | 23.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lugano win on 2026-08-27?this page
- Will MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano end in a draw?Yes won
- Will MH Maccabi Tel Aviv win on 2026-08-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.