Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf2187e7f2c95489edd5e4b7a2e60e75e73db3367536f717511c50f13104a8f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 27c | 6,000$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,394.58 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -14.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 2,094$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.87 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 1,007$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.02 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 25c | 850.8$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.75 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Yes | 33c | 740$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.8 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed No | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 74c | 553.81$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.82 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed No | 67c | 543.3$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.01 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 74c | 400$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…44b2backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 130.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb31…fe71backed Yes | 77c | 129.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 67c | 127$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 23c | 123.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 837 | 33%276 W · 561 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 71c | 112.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 222 | 37.8%84 W · 138 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 60c | 83.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 470 | 36%169 W · 301 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 30c | 74.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…cf8ebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 26c | 70.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 838 | 45%377 W · 461 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed Yes | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 27c | 62.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 495 | 55.4%274 W · 221 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 25c | 61.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 73c | 52.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…8efdbacked Yes | 41c | 51.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 29c | 49.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 206 | 46.1%95 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 74c | 47.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d7…c25cbacked Yes | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9f62backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 74c | 35.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 308 | 51%157 W · 151 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Yes | 72c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 65c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 354 | 46.9%166 W · 188 L | -14.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed No | 73c | 15.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 331 | 42.9%142 W · 189 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Lugano win on 2026-08-27?No won
- Will MH Maccabi Tel Aviv win on 2026-08-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.