Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x350bd9e5ffe4181842ae2fccffd1f29e8864f81e0d8bf98cca7d5e063439e9ff

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,643
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,995

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,643 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	79c	19,776$15,689 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,087.08	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over	21c	10,000$2,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100	131	51.1%67 W · 64 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	78c	3,480$2,726 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$754.21	597	41.7%249 W · 348 L	-18.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Over	21c	3,000$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630	107	48.6%52 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over	21c	3,000$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630	122	49.2%60 W · 62 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	79c	1,763$1,393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$370.23	108	45.4%49 W · 59 L	-9.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Over	19c	1,749$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.31	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40a5…f0a8backed Under	79c	1,266$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.78	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+48%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb4…acb6backed Under	78c	944.73$741 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.79	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+46.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over	21c	799.98$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	144	47.2%68 W · 76 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over	22c	611.45$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.6	139	31.7%44 W · 95 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa5…4f56backed Under	79c	468.35$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.35	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over	21c	450$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.5	383	56.7%217 W · 166 L	+11.1wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over	21c	450$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.5	213	54%115 W · 98 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over	21c	450$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.5	167	53.3%89 W · 78 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over	21c	400$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	449	55.7%250 W · 199 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over	21c	400$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	156	57.1%89 W · 67 L	+10.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under	79c	362.44$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.11	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over	21c	359.99$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	178	55.6%99 W · 79 L	+7.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over	21c	350$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	172	51.7%89 W · 83 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over	22c	311.5$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.53	434	27.4%119 W · 315 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over	21c	300$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	127	48%61 W · 66 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over	21c	300$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	283	57.2%162 W · 121 L	+15.2wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over	21c	300$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	135	52.6%71 W · 64 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	71c	268.31$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.63	1,511	40.2%608 W · 903 L	-6.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over	21c	250$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	469	56.5%265 W · 204 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x995e…534cbacked Over	35c	220$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	31	64.5%20 W · 11 L	+4.2wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+80%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	84	54.8%46 W · 38 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over	21c	199.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	187	54.5%102 W · 85 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over	21c	189.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	132	52.3%69 W · 63 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over	21c	170$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	115	48.7%56 W · 59 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over	21c	170$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	133	52.6%70 W · 63 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over	21c	170$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	143	52.4%75 W · 68 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over	21c	170$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	109	49.5%54 W · 55 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over	21c	170$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	114	49.1%56 W · 58 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over	21c	170$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	135	48.9%66 W · 69 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over	21c	170$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	137	51.8%71 W · 66 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over	21c	170$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	162	51.2%83 W · 79 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Over	22c	167.55$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.86	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over	21c	160$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	156	51.3%80 W · 76 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over	21c	150$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	183	50.3%92 W · 91 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over	21c	150$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	142	47.2%67 W · 75 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	9c	141.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.78	424	38%161 W · 263 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	22c	124.73$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.44	397	46.9%186 W · 211 L	+9.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over	21c	120$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	117	47%55 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over	21c	120$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over	21c	120$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	116	50.9%59 W · 57 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over	21c	120$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	118	50%59 W · 59 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over	21c	119.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	116	48.3%56 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Over	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	119	47.1%56 W · 63 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	87	51.7%45 W · 42 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under	75c	89.15$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.29	239	47.7%114 W · 125 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Under	76c	86.86$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.85	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked Over	21c	80$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	88	50%44 W · 44 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Over	21c	80$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over	21c	70$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	138	53.6%74 W · 64 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Under	79c	63.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.29	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-4.4wins	-0.13per pick	62cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Over	21c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	115	48.7%56 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Over	21c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	132	48.5%64 W · 68 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Over	21c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	119	52.1%62 W · 57 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Over	21c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	121	49.6%60 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Over	21c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	114	49.1%56 W · 58 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over	21c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Over	21c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	151	53%80 W · 71 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over	21c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	122	49.2%60 W · 62 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Over	21c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Over	21c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	131	51.1%67 W · 64 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over	21c	59.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	119	49.6%59 W · 60 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Under	79c	52.68$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.06	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-5.0wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under	78c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	79c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.74	650	50.2%326 W · 324 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	68c	29$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.27	338	51.5%174 W · 164 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc92…6564backed Under	77c	25.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	71cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed Under	78c	24.65$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.42	88	68.2%60 W · 28 L	-7.2wins	-0.08per pick	76cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e78…70c7backed Under	79c	24.27$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.1	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	266	45.9%122 W · 144 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under	79c	17.57$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.69	98	50%49 W · 49 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Under	79c	17.5$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.67	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+3.7wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Under	79c	15.19$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.19	53	64.2%34 W · 19 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf39d…c817backed Under	80c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5this page
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over won
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event