Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e51dec9b43ba459acc1fd33d7e26943fac0e7dafe0d71d4960dad8955e743a8

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,089
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,655

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,089 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	60c	20,136$12,111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,025.38	1,959	44.1%863 W · 1,096 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over	40c	10,000$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,999.99	131	51.1%67 W · 64 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over	40c	3,000$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	122	49.2%60 W · 62 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Over	40c	2,383$953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.38	107	48.6%52 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	60c	2,335$1,398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$936.5	594	41.8%248 W · 346 L	-18.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Under	60c	1,797$1,078 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$718.8	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-3.6wins	-0.33per pick	51cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9e16…a795backed Under	60c	1,667$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$666.67	47	59.6%28 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Over	36c	1,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under	60c	890$534 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$356	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over	40c	799.99$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.99	144	47.2%68 W · 76 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Over	41c	731.02$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-3.3wins	-0.20per pick	49cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	60c	696.37$414 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.89	264	45.8%121 W · 143 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under	60c	517.91$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.16	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Over	41c	499.99$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	41c	453.51$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.9	1,487	40.3%599 W · 888 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over	40c	450$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	383	56.7%217 W · 166 L	+11.1wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over	40c	450$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	213	54%115 W · 98 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over	40c	450$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	167	53.3%89 W · 78 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over	40c	400$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	449	55.7%250 W · 199 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over	40c	400$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	156	57.1%89 W · 67 L	+10.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over	40c	360$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	178	55.6%99 W · 79 L	+7.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over	40c	350$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	172	51.7%89 W · 83 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	58c	310.18$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.28	383	43.1%165 W · 218 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over	40c	300$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	127	48%61 W · 66 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over	40c	300$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	283	57.2%162 W · 121 L	+15.2wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over	40c	300$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	135	52.6%71 W · 64 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over	40c	250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	469	56.5%265 W · 204 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Under	59c	233.9$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.9	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x995e…534cbacked Over	62c	220$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.4	31	64.5%20 W · 11 L	+4.2wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+80%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over	41c	200$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	84	54.8%46 W · 38 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over	40c	200$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	187	54.5%102 W · 85 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over	40c	190$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	132	52.3%69 W · 63 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	62c	177.29$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.53	159	36.5%58 W · 101 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over	40c	170$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	115	48.7%56 W · 59 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over	40c	170$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	133	52.6%70 W · 63 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over	40c	170$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	143	52.4%75 W · 68 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over	40c	170$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	109	49.5%54 W · 55 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over	40c	170$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	114	49.1%56 W · 58 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over	40c	170$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	135	48.9%66 W · 69 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over	40c	170$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	137	51.8%71 W · 66 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over	40c	170$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	162	51.2%83 W · 79 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over	40c	160$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	156	51.3%80 W · 76 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90a5…9dccbacked Over	32c	152.29$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.73	68	52.9%36 W · 32 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over	40c	150$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	183	50.3%92 W · 91 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over	40c	150$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	142	47.2%67 W · 75 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	62c	128$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.92	380	43.9%167 W · 213 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6768…692dbacked Over	42c	122.98$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.02	69	52.2%36 W · 33 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+17%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over	40c	120$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	117	47%55 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over	40c	120$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	116	48.3%56 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over	40c	120$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over	40c	120$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	116	50.9%59 W · 57 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over	40c	120$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	113	50.4%57 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over	40c	120$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	118	50%59 W · 59 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Over	41c	115.56$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.38	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Over	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	119	47.1%56 W · 63 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	87	51.7%45 W · 42 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under	63c	100$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37	213	54%115 W · 98 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Over	37c	100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	239	47.7%114 W · 125 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	41c	98.42$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.35	397	46.9%186 W · 211 L	+9.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Over	40c	80$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked Over	40c	80$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	88	50%44 W · 44 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c8…3d82backed Over	40c	75.13$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over	40c	70$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	138	53.6%74 W · 64 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over	56c	66.68$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.11	116	53.4%62 W · 54 L	+5.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Over	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	115	48.7%56 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Over	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	132	48.5%64 W · 68 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Over	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	119	52.1%62 W · 57 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	119	49.6%59 W · 60 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Over	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	121	49.6%60 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Over	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	114	49.1%56 W · 58 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Over	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	151	53%80 W · 71 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	122	49.2%60 W · 62 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Over	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed Over	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	131	51.1%67 W · 64 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Under	63c	47$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.39	293	50.5%148 W · 145 L	+13.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	+5.4wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over	38c	39.47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-7.4wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x06da…0a4abacked Under	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-2.7wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38a3…b461backed Over	39c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcbc…93a8backed Under	61c	29.99$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.7	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	57c	28.47$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.28	338	51.5%174 W · 164 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Under	60c	22.95$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.18	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+3.7wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	60c	22.42$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.9	631	50.2%317 W · 314 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…c727backed Under	60c	16.7$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.68	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf584…d8dabacked Under	60c	16.67$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.67	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5this page
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over won
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event