Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3521da352b7154cb19be454f2b5e8cb385d15a27ccad44cb3c0bcd928b9e893c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75b0…7db2backed Yes | 1c | 1,053$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 632.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 71c | 265.6$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 231.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 23c | 200.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 189.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 33c | 189.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 170.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 17c | 101.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 97.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 97.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 91.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 73.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 60.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 28c | 52.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 29c | 39.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 27.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 25.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 24.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…1ec7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 19.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 71c | 19.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.