Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3ffb69865283dbf6618b846e712e98ce061f34a4d15224b792c2bb2713d98ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 301.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 21c | 275.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 22c | 207.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 72c | 206.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 23c | 146.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 139.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 126.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 78c | 125.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 26c | 116.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 97.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 46c | 79.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 67c | 74.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 22c | 73.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 58c | 73.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 71c | 64.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 59.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 53c | 52.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 21c | 51.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 73c | 45.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 45.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 66c | 45.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 26c | 44.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 42.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 41.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 40c | 35.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 77c | 29.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 77c | 27.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 27.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 79c | 26.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 77c | 22.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 79c | 19.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 19.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 68c | 18.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 79c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.