NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3543ba82a9a9360400d7751beeb2f0c4e253672534d2ce526a83fa169dee9abe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 50c | 96,809$48,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,207.79 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 77,095$38,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,239.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Over | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 50c | 16,093$8,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,983.84 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 50c | 11,906$5,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,953.04 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 7,031$3,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,445 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…38c2backed Under | 54c | 3,051$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 51c | 2,994$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.06 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…3919backed Over | 50c | 2,687$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…6353backed Under | 50c | 2,183$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87aa…2867backed Over | 46c | 1,839$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669f…a2e9backed Under | 50c | 1,624$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8938…f7a9backed Over | 50c | 1,572$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…7439backed Over | 50c | 1,561$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x757c…ab06backed Under | 50c | 1,521$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e4…cf0cbacked Over | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…e49fbacked Over | 46c | 1,481$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…c081backed Under | 50c | 1,387$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…ed77backed Under | 51c | 1,366$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…ee41backed Over | 50c | 1,262$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d4…2708backed Over | 46c | 1,243$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc46…8a54backed Over | 49c | 1,218$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…fcb0backed Over | 46c | 1,187$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…ebd8backed Under | 54c | 1,050$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb19…cc1fbacked Under | 51c | 1,044$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0279…0af6backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…de87backed Over | 49c | 963$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…c144backed Under | 54c | 894$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf134…7b46backed Over | 49c | 849$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…7c35backed Under | 54c | 801$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ff…b69cbacked Under | 51c | 768$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1386…ad63backed Over | 50c | 750$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…a510backed Over | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…eb57backed Under | 54c | 680$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ec8ebacked Over | 46c | 663$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…930abacked Over | 49c | 637$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…8863backed Under | 54c | 620$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…d6d2backed Under | 50c | 611$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…130abacked Over | 50c | 580$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…d563backed Under | 54c | 567$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…b7f6backed Over | 46c | 549$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 539.22$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.22 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d5…c40ebacked Over | 50c | 505$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…e8e6backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…7fffbacked Under | 51c | 489$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 455.01$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…afbdbacked Under | 54c | 453$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea7e…6ea6backed Under | 50c | 450$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3c…a7f8backed Under | 54c | 450$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…1192backed Under | 50c | 330$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa419…a29bbacked Over | 50c | 324$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…2327backed Over | 50c | 322$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 299.4$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.71 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bca…182fbacked Over | 50c | 289$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdf…2934backed Under | 50c | 246$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 53c | 198.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 169$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 50c | 167.96$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…4720backed Over | 47c | 149.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 61c | 105$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 54c | 104.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…6617backed Over | 46c | 104$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…06c0backed Under | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5this page
- Hawks vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.