NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfcf30a02e6407d750d1d664ce60f57fd2f202a54f0806163412aec65138a2ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 26,000$14,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,180 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hawks | 41c | 6,657$2,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,718.05 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Hawks | 48c | 6,252$2,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970.78 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 43c | 6,195$2,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Hawks | 43c | 3,574$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.82 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Hawks | 43c | 3,573$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.29 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…c081backed Cavaliers | 52c | 3,383$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87aa…2867backed Cavaliers | 53c | 3,281$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…3919backed Hawks | 48c | 3,126$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawks | 46c | 2,902$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.92 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf09…88b3backed Hawks | 48c | 2,875$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757c…ab06backed Cavaliers | 52c | 2,846$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Cavaliers | 58c | 2,736$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.24 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…2327backed Cavaliers | 53c | 2,446$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…ee41backed Hawks | 48c | 2,428$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…c144backed Hawks | 48c | 2,419$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Cavaliers | 55c | 2,225$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.19 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e6…2ad9backed Cavaliers | 52c | 2,217$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…afbdbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 2,064$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.72 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…7439backed Hawks | 47c | 1,817$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x669f…a2e9backed Hawks | 48c | 1,789$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa419…a29bbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 1,532$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…6617backed Cavaliers | 52c | 1,431$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…db42backed Cavaliers | 52c | 1,426$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ec8ebacked Hawks | 47c | 1,399$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hawks | 43c | 1,332$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.73 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdf…2934backed Hawks | 48c | 1,278$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Hawks | 58c | 1,269$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.25 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 44c | 1,267$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.9 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Cavaliers | 51c | 1,091$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.73 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d4…2708backed Hawks | 48c | 1,076$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8938…f7a9backed Hawks | 47c | 1,026$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Hawks | 43c | 1,006$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.57 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…b7f6backed Hawks | 47c | 998$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…6353backed Hawks | 47c | 888$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…38c2backed Hawks | 47c | 884$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d5…c40ebacked Cavaliers | 52c | 860$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…e56fbacked Hawks | 48c | 768$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0279…0af6backed Cavaliers | 53c | 700$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…e8e6backed Cavaliers | 53c | 650$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks | 47c | 632$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.16 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7e…6ea6backed Cavaliers | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1386…ad63backed Hawks | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…d6d2backed Cavaliers | 53c | 567$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Hawks | 43c | 533$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.19 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bca…182fbacked Hawks | 47c | 532$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…130abacked Hawks | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Hawks | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Hawks | 52c | 499$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.48 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…1192backed Cavaliers | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Hawks | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks | 44c | 275$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Cavaliers | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Hawks | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…c36abacked Cavaliers | 51c | 195.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 51c | 154$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Hawks | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Hawks | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Cavaliers | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Hawks | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Hawks | 49c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…da66backed Cavaliers | 54c | 77.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Hawks | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Cavaliers | 54c | 50.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Cavaliers | 54c | 46.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Hawks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Hawks | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Cavaliers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Cavaliers | 55c | 36.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Cavaliers | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Hawks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Hawks | 49c | 26.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…06c0backed Cavaliers | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)this page
- Hawks vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.