NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c0eeddb968df43d814e7cabc7b0c17406d4bb5229d00b770f8286c1efa9b5e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Hawks | 50c | 80,093$40,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,044.14 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cavaliers | 50c | 66,153$33,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,076.73 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 12,000$5,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,040 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers | 49c | 9,041$4,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,621.28 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Hawks | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bc…5bd2backed Hawks | 66c | 4,049$2,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,675.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Cavaliers | 47c | 2,663$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.17 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Hawks | 50c | 2,547$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.72 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Hawks | 50c | 1,815$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.5 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Cavaliers | 4c | 1,191$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.67 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 50c | 789$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 769.16$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.81 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 302$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cavaliers | 44c | 275$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Cavaliers | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Hawks | 51c | 109.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hawks | 48c | 108$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Hawks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Cavaliers | 51c | 56.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Hawks | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Hawks | 49c | 35.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)this page
- Hawks vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.