College Football · resolved market
Liberty vs. Bowling Green
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35478b10d63322ce3942a62597fd93a48c0c00ae87e93c5b53de31c57c9393c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bowling Greenof Liberty, Bowling Green
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Liberty | 67c | 1,403$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Bowling Green | 33c | 1,258$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.91 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Liberty | 44c | 999.99$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.99 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Liberty | 48c | 815.69$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.01 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Liberty | 36c | 783.24$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.2 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Liberty | 37c | 712.1$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.21 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Bowling Green | 34c | 600$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed Bowling Green | 68c | 585.02$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bowling Green | 34c | 481.23$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.61 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Bowling Green | 33c | 471.54$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.9 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bowling Green | 54c | 390.23$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.16 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Liberty | 34c | 341.71$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.18 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Liberty | 66c | 271.33$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.08 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Liberty | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bowling Green | 33c | 207$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Liberty | 66c | 197.57$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.71 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Bowling Green | 59c | 193.17$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bowling Green | 73c | 192$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cae…f15ebacked Liberty | 67c | 149.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Bowling Green | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0463…d029backed Liberty | 70c | 102.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Bowling Green | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Liberty | 66c | 99.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Bowling Green | 60c | 92.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77cd…5a13backed Liberty | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddb…756dbacked Liberty | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bowling Green | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…b6fabacked Bowling Green | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…261bbacked Liberty | 70c | 68.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2e03backed Liberty | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…a752backed Liberty | 66c | 62.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 73cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c37…9e0cbacked Bowling Green | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Liberty | 65c | 58.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed09…6e5ebacked Liberty | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Bowling Green | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…94d4backed Liberty | 66c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Liberty | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Bowling Green | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Bowling Green | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1be…5409backed Bowling Green | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Liberty | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…b9f9backed Liberty | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257f…12fcbacked Bowling Green | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde50…ca66backed Bowling Green | 72c | 23.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5b12backed Liberty | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef06…dbc0backed Liberty | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa79…83e2backed Liberty | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Liberty | 65c | 17.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7d…2db8backed Liberty | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liberty vs. Bowling Greenthis page
- Liberty vs. Bowling Green: O/U 50.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.