TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,388
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,070

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,388 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e42…19f0backed Yes0c18,002$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd4…8bf9backed Yes0c13,499$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes3c5,740$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.282045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes44c971.37$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.210843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc926…98c8backed Yes2c921$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6190%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes50c740.71$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.4416437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes49c518.53$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.8123633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c482.43$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b64…0ab4backed Yes66c473.95$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.072744.4%12 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-26.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec53…e515backed Yes40c470.15$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1881330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes44c431.41$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.77146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c395.1$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.478,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No57c373.37$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.984,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes29c341.04$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.441637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes41c300.29$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.195427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No67c297.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3381165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc501…d0f1backed Yes32c289.67$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.562441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No71c281.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.692,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes37c269.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8933139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes45c239.49$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3132147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No64c231.39$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.793,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes48c224.65$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0813728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes48c221.94$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4810845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes74c217.97$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.731,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked Yes26c212.39$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4329751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes28c211.22$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.144738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes39c199.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes43c198.69$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.481,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes32c193.07$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.971,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes35c181.03$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2211646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac28…f2d4backed Yes36c170.45$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.812227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes39c167.57$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.964963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes53c164.92$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5531649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes35c161.64$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.088643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa990…7750backed Yes37c158.97$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes32c158.3$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.283246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes36c152.81$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.820534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes38c149.91$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.974037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x178b…0c67backed Yes61c149$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.453330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No50c140.74$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.933,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7f0…566ebacked Yes28c139.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.881838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes35c135.73$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.629,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c132.77$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.73,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0857…dc72backed Yes23c132.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.973737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No67c130.79$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.312762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ed1…3363backed No75c130.72$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes15c130$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes54c128.84$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No69c127.48$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2356434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a90…d8debacked Yes28c123.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.062321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f8b…a682backed Yes29c122.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.241921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc6…7bc7backed No71c119.18$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.85742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes42c113.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9642849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd94c…3fe4backed Yes33c110.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c109.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes31c104.35$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6139427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes34c98.65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.831,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed No63c98.51$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.455547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes47c97.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.236657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No50c97.35$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.982,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No60c97.24$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0928839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No52c92.66$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5431262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes33c92.15$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6326434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No47c91.89$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4152155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5209…b249backed Yes40c91.18$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.53933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes21c89.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.813333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes39c89.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes32c88.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1066…a2cabacked No65c88.62$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No63c87.4$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.192,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No51c86.39$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6846626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes21c86.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3861929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes41c85.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No59c84.53$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0666944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes41c81.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9315131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7795…2db2backed No65c79.71$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3011…add7backed No63c79.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.731435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes34c79.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.911,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No71c78$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3457614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes46c77.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.564139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes35c76.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.864333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes39c75.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5194066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes36c75.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9616530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No65c71.49$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.792,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked No63c70.97$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1410966.1%72 W · 37 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No72c68.21$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9154966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb211…10b3backed No73c68.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.399453.2%50 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes36c64.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2327246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No65c64.03$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3810163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.952,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes38c63.2$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8822945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes26c62.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.338748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507d…742ebacked Yes31c62.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No64c62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde72…b5b1backed Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.221131.8%67 W · 144 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No61c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.716550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes59c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.47979.7%63 W · 16 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes30c59.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9916234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.