TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,299 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes44c2,065$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.6530919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes74c650.79$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.2242130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c533.89$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No26c505.06$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7246626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No56c447.94$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.058,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes36c381.83$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.310843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes70c352.92$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.531,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No59c338.9$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.952,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No50c337.34$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.0366944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes45c322.96$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.4253437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No15c310.13$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.891,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes40c302.51$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.975427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No66c293.89$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6781165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes55c280.5$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.7710642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes55c268.46$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7527047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes47c257.91$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.713225%8 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes43c235.2$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.334738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No51c235.07$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.43,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a90…d8debacked No13c234.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.842321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec53…e515backed No63c234.01$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.421330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No68c229.94$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3231649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No46c223.23$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0128737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc93b…9e73backed Yes48c199.98$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes56c197.02$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8810845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes50c191.32$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5311249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe434…bcdcbacked Yes50c189.84$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes50c184.84$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4216437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes41c171.61$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.1820534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes53c167.99$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1811646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes28c167.26$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.684126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes52c165.34$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.688643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c162.37$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3704…2667backed Yes54c160.93$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes65c156.92$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1123633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes55c156.67$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7352444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No49c154.17$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes51c150.46$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9929732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed No47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.55547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes41c149.71$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0465043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f0…566ebacked Yes35c149.68$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.291838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c145.45$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.684,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes53c141.07$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.634963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes38c135.24$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.642445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes45c132.37$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.381,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes36c130.91$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4545238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23e…2623backed Yes41c128.44$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.732755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No48c128.03$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4312762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed No19c125.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3912228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No41c122.38$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.62,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed No79c121.98$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1715759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa07a…f97abacked Yes42c121.61$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.312717.3%22 W · 105 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-66.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes56c120.34$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4417135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c38…83d0backed Yes41c120.27$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.965024%12 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed No56c118.24$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5315236.2%55 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes54c115.69$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6445148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes58c115.05$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9710141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes43c112.49$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes45c104.91$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.593636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No76c104.54$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.320161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cff…64a0backed Yes60c103.37$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No46c101.2$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0110163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+42.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes38c99.86$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.921,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes50c98.75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3812638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes40c93.84$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2318534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes41c93.59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes33c93.3$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5111835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No43c93.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6652155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No17c90.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.572,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…9074backed Yes42c89.68$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.732425%6 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-49.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No62c87.36$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.551,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes33c86.56$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes51c86.2$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.921,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No49c84.47$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.311,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes46c78.57$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.494139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf9a…371abacked Yes36c77.52$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.421650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes42c74.03$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.941,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes43c73.08$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6925839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes40c73.07$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8494066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05a…d78fbacked No68c73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6412670.6%89 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5127…6f96backed No68c72.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6312374%91 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No56c72.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4933567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes52c72.9$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes54c72.07$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4626434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No61c70$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.972,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes35c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.561929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes50c68.15$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.91,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c63.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes40c62.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.758748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc32…c430backed Yes57c60.61$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.06757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac28…f2d4backed No64c60.46$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.552227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No67c60.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.082,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.212941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes31c59.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.33,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No62c59.66$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes40c58.75$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2537835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5535…8b00backed Yes32c58.71$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.07540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d37…0ef1backed No68c58.41$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4310258.8%60 W · 42 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes33c53.82$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.063333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.