Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bee9cc174b32c8a6c4b004af0f75c83e9a71b733e4d0672adb9a1e213b909c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 8c | 1,887$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.54 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 685.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 7c | 571.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 481.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 2c | 463.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 6c | 447.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 380.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 12c | 371.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f32…073abacked Yes | 8c | 365.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 334.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 305.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 12c | 283.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 14c | 252.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 15c | 234.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…785ebacked Yes | 10c | 226.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 8c | 217.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 11c | 199$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 9c | 198.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 15c | 184.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 10c | 183.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…1246backed Yes | 7c | 162.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 9c | 159.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 9c | 151.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 139.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 9c | 132.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 131.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 25c | 123.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f04…b5a1backed Yes | 9c | 117.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 18c | 111.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 14c | 105.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…8c4ebacked Yes | 21c | 79.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 21c | 78.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 77.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 23c | 62.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3310…545dbacked Yes | 18c | 61.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 79c | 56.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 75c | 48.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 23c | 46.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 76c | 44.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 77c | 40.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 78c | 28.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 78c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…7a33backed No | 79c | 24.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 50c | 19.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 76c | 19.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 76c | 16.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 78c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.