MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x356a27deac728ecf456576cb78fb988a30dca6e40dff51c55b7458482ae3feea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 58c | 15,000$8,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,679.5 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 10,585$4,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,139.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 6,951$3,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 3,128$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 2,592$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 41c | 2,063$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.01 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 55c | 777$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.15 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 60c | 266.66$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.66 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 262.18$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.84 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…06ddbacked Over | 64c | 258.14$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 36c | 249.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 231.9$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 61c | 173.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.68 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 51c | 170.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 56c | 158$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 45c | 105.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 61c | 104.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 39c | 81.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 37c | 73.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 63c | 63.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 61c | 60.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 56c | 57.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 39c | 56.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 67c | 52.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 50c | 51.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 58c | 49.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 51c | 47.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 43c | 44.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Over | 42c | 41.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 45c | 37.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…30febacked Under | 50c | 33.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 48c | 33.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Under | 51c | 31.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x506e…e41bbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 50c | 25.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe0…05b5backed Under | 50c | 22.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…14edbacked Under | 50c | 22.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 57c | 21.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 61c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 69c | 20.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 937 | 73.5%689 W · 248 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over | 70c | 19.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.