MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc07edade4aecda5ff96a44a92da938184cd0a6bc0fafbc5d226e330049f9acc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 5,550$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,270.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 77c | 4,604$3,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,539.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 60c | 2,435$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.52 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 3c | 1,539$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 464.06$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 23c | 321.78$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.57 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 30c | 246.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.3 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 229.51$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 58c | 218.49$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 41c | 214.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Under | 36c | 206.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 24c | 142$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.92 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…0a3fbacked Over | 23c | 114.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 55.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 48.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 65c | 46.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 32c | 41.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 45c | 36.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 55c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 41c | 24.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…7b57backed Over | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…b168backed Under | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…8148backed Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.