MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d74710cc443caafdb68f3e08258c0045bbc624316f41d9321d4b6fa00cb4cae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 60c | 16,851$10,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,066.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 15,000$8,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,076.61 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 49c | 5,372$2,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,637.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 4,451$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,802.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 4,057$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,395.1 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.98 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 18c | 2,615$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.4 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 2,052$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 1,773$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.53 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 1,567$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.64 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 1,013$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.03 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 510$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.1 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 18c | 500$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 467.87$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.4 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 461.64$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 257$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.91 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Washington Nationals | 19c | 244.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.94 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…e868backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 238.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 233.87$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.98 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…0a3fbacked Washington Nationals | 20c | 228.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.92 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 191$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 135.39$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 131$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 131$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 22c | 122.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 109.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Kansas City Royals | 18c | 103.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 97.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 80.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Washington Nationals | 19c | 79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Washington Nationals | 34c | 61.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Kansas City Royals | 45c | 59.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 54.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 53.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 44.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 38.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 38.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 32.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 30.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 28.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 20.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 17.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.