NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 210.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x359757e44bf6e22ce1ed6dafd907778d8a5e1e7728ec8feea1d730cee78a7cfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 44c | 3,399$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.04 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 47c | 1,894$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.62 | 348 | 54%188 W · 160 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 56c | 1,686$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.89 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 56c | 1,166$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.3 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 45c | 891.66$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.19 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 55c | 873.01$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.16 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 56c | 335.64$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.96 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 55c | 285.37$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.95 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…36bbbacked Under | 51c | 195.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 157.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…1405backed Over | 48c | 118.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 112.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea95…4730backed Under | 58c | 78.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 76.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 53c | 58.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 46c | 48.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 32c | 47.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 49c | 30.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…ab6bbacked Over | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Over | 76c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 210.5this page
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Nets vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 206.5Over won
- Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 207.5Over won
- Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 208.5Over won
- Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 209.5Over won
- Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Noah Clowney: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Nolan Traoré: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-16.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-17.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-18.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.