Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35d79bed517d56c9d429320d5f691f804f5f41f0c493d9a671c22fb460cb027b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 10,679$6,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,049.37 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 38c | 4,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 39c | 3,001$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.2 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 39c | 2,122$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 60c | 1,664$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.3 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 59c | 980.82$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.91 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 41c | 724.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 41c | 606.34$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Under | 62c | 564.52$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Under | 59c | 499.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.99 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 42c | 476.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 66c | 450$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 58c | 444$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Under | 61c | 400.72$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 40c | 386.8$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Over | 38c | 370$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 59c | 331.7$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.09 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 42c | 299.71$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.88 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 37c | 269.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95f…c250backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Over | 31c | 249.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…ffd0backed Over | 40c | 245.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Over | 41c | 243.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Over | 41c | 241.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over | 44c | 209.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 63c | 199.92$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 79c | 170$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…bdf4backed Over | 40c | 170$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 34c | 133.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb3…8689backed Under | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…1fa7backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5244…23d9backed Over | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…1abcbacked Over | 41c | 119.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe19…3c19backed Over | 40c | 105.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65f…0babbacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…763ebacked Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Under | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x825a…ece6backed Over | 40c | 97.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa2…2da1backed Over | 41c | 85.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 60c | 57.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…d772backed Over | 39c | 50.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…d4d3backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ba…3b9ebacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -71%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 41c | 34.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…0231backed Over | 41c | 32.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…8f94backed Over | 41c | 27.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Over | 42c | 26.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5this page
- AC Milan vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: AC Milan (-0.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.