TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Serie A · resolved market

AC Milan vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,220
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,220 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Serie A
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under62c10,679$6,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.372,53845.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Over38c4,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5203357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over39c3,001$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.23948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over39c2,122$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.261457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under60c1,664$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.34261.9%26 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+23.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under59c980.82$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.9133357.4%191 W · 142 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68d6…cfb9backed Over41c724.52$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+47.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over41c606.34$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011429.8%34 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0353…c2ffbacked Under62c564.52$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.52714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-77%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Under59c499.99$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.994259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Over42c476.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under66c450$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1538957.3%51 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under58c444$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.489958.6%58 W · 41 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Under61c400.72$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.72933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Over40c386.8$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1542360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb6…15cdbacked Over38c370$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under59c331.7$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.0914452.1%75 W · 69 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Over42c299.71$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.883250%16 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over37c269.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.92646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb95f…c250backed Over40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e48…6fd3backed Over31c249.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x535b…ffd0backed Over40c245.88$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.35450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc794…d09cbacked Over41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35e8…0596backed Over41c243.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a4…7fe3backed Over41c241.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Over42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Over44c209.43$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921450%7 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+31.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9817…28bcbacked Over40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under63c199.92$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3610260.8%62 W · 40 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under79c170$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.959240.7%241 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23c3…bdf4backed Over40c170$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682055%11 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa65b…0419backed Under63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.732060%12 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Under59c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.54553.3%24 W · 21 L+7.1wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+48.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8816…7082backed Over41c146.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010951.4%56 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Over34c133.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.021618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-49.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcfb3…8689backed Under63c126.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x834b…1fa7backed Over41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5244…23d9backed Over38c120$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e6…1abcbacked Over41c119.51$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4930%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe19…3c19backed Over40c105.35$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.141346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd65f…0babbacked Over20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d08…763ebacked Over21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed Under58c99.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426863.2%43 W · 25 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x825a…ece6backed Over40c97.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fa2…2da1backed Over41c85.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Over41c60.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511546.1%53 W · 62 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under60c57.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2312540%50 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade2…d772backed Over39c50.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b2b…d4d3backed Over41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-69.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ba…3b9ebacked Over40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf9…1646backed Over42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-71%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Over42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208856.8%50 W · 38 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-15.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e7e…425ebacked Over40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155334%18 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7541…09d1backed Over41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb61…bd7fbacked Over42c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151947.4%9 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick64cpaid-30%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Over41c34.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.193542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb8…0231backed Over41c32.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.43540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f03…dc32backed Over41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Over37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.17450%37 W · 37 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ac…8f94backed Over41c27.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa856…3964backed Over42c26.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Over41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.251637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.