Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35daa145c97012c02c9f0aa96521fe668444c35d48c6d8e5a39731699c3b3232
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 26c | 1,766$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.74 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 429.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 394.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 68c | 331.29$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.45 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 33c | 309.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 64c | 296.39$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 235.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 216.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…eac8backed Yes | 47c | 212.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 183.68$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 163.73$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 26c | 149.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 137.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 63c | 135.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 37c | 133.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 115.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 38c | 105.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 101.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 99.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 96.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 39c | 95.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 64c | 91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 37c | 80.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 72.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 69.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 38c | 68.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 68.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 38c | 66.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 17c | 65.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 36c | 54.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 54.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 69c | 54.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 76c | 54.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 52.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Yes | 31c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 50.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 59c | 45.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 66c | 38.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 38c | 32.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 32.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 68c | 32.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 56c | 32.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 29.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 57c | 25.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 20.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 50c | 20.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 71c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.