Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72eb615e3c5a501256ba4210351318bf5dc5ec8b2202b78153f807433820acf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 39c | 601.97$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.23 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 588.27$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 70c | 516.18$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.59 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes | 48c | 270.24$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 250.13$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 188.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 185.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 45c | 181.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.46 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 169.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 29c | 168.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 161.07$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 151.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 141.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 36c | 139.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 137.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 137.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 135.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 36c | 127.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 49c | 120.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 56c | 108.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 48c | 104.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 102.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 92.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 88.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 54c | 76.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 76.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 71c | 74.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 19c | 71.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 62c | 70.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked No | 28c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 66.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 53c | 66.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 78c | 64.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 63.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 40c | 60.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 59c | 59.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 54c | 51.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 50c | 44.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 33c | 42.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 41.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 49c | 40.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 39.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 38.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 38c | 36.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked Yes | 38c | 34.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 45c | 34.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 47c | 32.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 31c | 32.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fa…b925backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 39c | 30.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 28.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked No | 46c | 22.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 80c | 21.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 57c | 21.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…bce9backed Yes | 78c | 20.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 62c | 18.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 59c | 18.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 16.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 70c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.