Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3609fcdca050bcd67351aa9a1a7a95e9f8bc1967910bd516e4905f17eab3624b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas State Red Wolvesof Bowling Green Falcons, Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Bowling Green Falcons | 42c | 23,073$9,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,678.07 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 59c | 11,671$6,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,785.74 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 5,431$3,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.27 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 5,281$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.89 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bowling Green Falcons | 41c | 3,473$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.32 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Bowling Green Falcons | 41c | 2,000$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Bowling Green Falcons | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Bowling Green Falcons | 44c | 907.84$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 58c | 741$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.99 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Bowling Green Falcons | 43c | 532.14$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.02 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 56c | 499.27$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.68 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Bowling Green Falcons | 18c | 371.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 357.91$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.9 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 61c | 228.31$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bowling Green Falcons | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 182.81$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Bowling Green Falcons | 43c | 164$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Bowling Green Falcons | 22c | 140.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bowling Green Falcons | 43c | 139.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Bowling Green Falcons | 26c | 139$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 77c | 130.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 60c | 125.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…8b71backed Bowling Green Falcons | 44c | 95.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87e4…ec34backed Bowling Green Falcons | 31c | 65.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Bowling Green Falcons | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077a…ec51backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 76c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Bowling Green Falcons | 42c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 74c | 46.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 59c | 42.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 59c | 39.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 78c | 38.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Bowling Green Falcons | 41c | 38.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Bowling Green Falcons | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 69c | 25.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 59c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 309 | 45.6%141 W · 168 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 100 | 95%95 W · 5 L | +21.3wins | +0.21per pick | 74cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bowling Green Falcons vs. Arkansas State Red Wolvesthis page
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-2.5)Arkansas State Red Wolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.