TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,310
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,310 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes60c880.02$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.0989544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No34c529.78$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.667,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes30c480.65$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.6551733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c284.98$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c254.9$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.955,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c182.61$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.738,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes36c164.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.471,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed No61c154.34$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9631124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf913…9e87backed No50c142.76$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.499066.7%60 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes30c129.64$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.291,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c119.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xafb8…7451backed Yes29c118.61$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.619335.5%33 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedba…002dbacked No71c113.54$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.339679.2%76 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes28c100.96$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.825,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3728…a76dbacked Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695726.3%15 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.958943.8%39 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes29c95.31$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.678,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No69c87.37$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.452,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No66c87.19$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.861,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No68c86.14$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.342,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No23c82.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9749543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x410f…57febacked No15c71.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.123318.2%6 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes41c70.46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7260739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a6a…b380backed Yes48c67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.042755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+51.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No67c66.88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.852,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No24c64.69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.792,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No74c64.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4983459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.22,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No68c59.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0471159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No69c55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.952,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fec…be3dbacked Yes30c55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.359056.7%51 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47d1…a3c0backed Yes74c54.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.03580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+62%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No32c52.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.964,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No46c51.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.722,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe9…56d9backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.695570.9%39 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes33c49.97$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.483,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes38c49.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6265934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No22c47.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No75c47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No28c46.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.882,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed No70c45.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8733154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes55c44.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.381,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed No52c44.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0667633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked No32c44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0824542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No36c42.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.192,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No69c41.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No33c38.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes67c36.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.189661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked No33c35.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.889458.5%55 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ee…93abbacked No72c34.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258872.7%64 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No62c34.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.677,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No37c34.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.922,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes41c34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0680735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No64c32.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1539968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No61c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.524,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No65c31.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No63c31.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No64c31.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2047175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.414,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No80c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes70c28.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.617368.5%50 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No76c25.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6844465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x998a…745bbacked No63c25.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1614252.1%74 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.251,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No68c24.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.443,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No63c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.121,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed No69c23.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4459144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes64c23.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4810443.3%45 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No67c22.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.792,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No67c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.842,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No69c21.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No51c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.721,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No71c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.911,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c20.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.274,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No66c20.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6279255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.446452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb8…243bbacked Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick77cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No59c19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2150373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No58c18.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91c0…d4dabacked No73c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.955381.1%43 W · 10 L+8.5wins+0.16per pick65cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.