Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ded67cdf20d53fdec79e89aadf83f3ddcfb3e2bb17993f02a52b89096609d49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 254.9$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 71c | 214.62$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 198.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 53c | 165.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 162.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 47c | 158.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 149.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 37c | 120.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 47c | 113.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 108.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 29c | 103.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 18c | 103.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 24c | 102.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 101$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 50c | 100.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…11f8backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 97.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 49c | 97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 90.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 74.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 66.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 47c | 64.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 26c | 57.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 42c | 54.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 54.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 53.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 78c | 53.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 51.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 56c | 50.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 49.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 45.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 43c | 42.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 49c | 41.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 35c | 37.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 45c | 35.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 68c | 35.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 32c | 33.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 31.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 31.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 30.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…236ebacked Yes | 43c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 51c | 25.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 25.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 60c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 52c | 22.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 66c | 22.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 62c | 22.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 58c | 22.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 20.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 19.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.