Europa Conference League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3640ed6d423dba4b77823932d2ae42b3b43a2f265ab908220dfb3ddda7ed762b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd178…6703backed Under | 71c | 3,612$2,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 3,450$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.14 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 61c | 2,568$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.18 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 41c | 1,600$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.99 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 58c | 1,324$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.36 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ff…d7afbacked Over | 42c | 1,072$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b33…9a34backed Over | 24c | 741$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Over | 41c | 600.19$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Under | 59c | 598$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.16 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 35c | 595.54$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.55 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 475$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 57c | 395.59$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 42c | 239.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 115.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 18c | 106.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 26c | 103.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…6b7fbacked Under | 59c | 94.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Over | 19c | 94.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 41c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 19c | 63.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…b778backed Under | 60c | 49.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 31c | 43.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…60d6backed Under | 69c | 37.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 79c | 35.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…8e6fbacked Over | 41c | 34.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…9b2bbacked Over | 41c | 32.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…34b9backed Over | 41c | 31.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…e90ebacked Over | 41c | 31.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 43c | 27.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdf…509dbacked Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaab…aeacbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +64%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar: O/U 3.5this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar: O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar: O/U 2.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)HŠK Zrinjski Mostar won
- Spread: HŠK Zrinjski Mostar (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: HŠK Zrinjski Mostar (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.