Europa Conference League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x764e2fc1b4f5016fc5a1df3f1f9dd3ed9b8a75bbfb936ad638505fa468ab756e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 35c | 1,431$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.48 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 65c | 1,212$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,201$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.27 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 56c | 980$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.68 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 41c | 913.21$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.49 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 36c | 843.56$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 65c | 507.43$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Over | 41c | 333$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.53 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 34c | 207.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 45c | 195.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 66c | 194.92$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 65c | 187.69$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…f0f2backed Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 64c | 121.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 58c | 114.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 108.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 101.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 36c | 89.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 39c | 85.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Over | 62c | 77.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 37c | 73.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 41.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Over | 59c | 32.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…fc33backed Over | 41c | 30.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…e29ebacked Over | 62c | 25.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…66e2backed Over | 65c | 23.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…3bafbacked Over | 64c | 21.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 67c | 17.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda0…b41bbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…3df5backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar: O/U 2.5this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar: O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar: O/U 3.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)HŠK Zrinjski Mostar won
- Spread: HŠK Zrinjski Mostar (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: HŠK Zrinjski Mostar (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.