NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x365df4e2fda2d93359896e1da9366c39e47192e2ba0bd21a50a5bd6863508cd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Timberwolves | 70c | 9,971$6,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,992.93 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…bb43backed Nuggets | 30c | 8,343$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Timberwolves | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Nuggets | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Nuggets | 1c | 1,102$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Nuggets | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 561 | 54.5%306 W · 255 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Timberwolves | 75c | 499.99$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Nuggets | 28c | 438.59$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Timberwolves | 75c | 400.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Timberwolves | 71c | 376.67$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c21cbacked Nuggets | 36c | 336.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nuggets | 30c | 336.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nuggets | 30c | 333.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Timberwolves | 65c | 328.04$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Nuggets | 29c | 279.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Nuggets | 16c | 278.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 370 | 11.4%42 W · 328 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Nuggets | 30c | 271.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 489 | 38.7%189 W · 300 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nuggets | 25c | 263.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…2930backed Nuggets | 20c | 219.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Timberwolves | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 258 | 36.8%95 W · 163 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Nuggets | 24c | 145.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Timberwolves | 78c | 142.31$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Nuggets | 24c | 130.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 463 | 42.5%197 W · 266 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Timberwolves | 74c | 101.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Nuggets | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Nuggets | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…c02fbacked Timberwolves | 75c | 90.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a33…83abbacked Timberwolves | 75c | 86.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Nuggets | 24c | 81.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Timberwolves | 75c | 73.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Nuggets | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…fe6abacked Nuggets | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Nuggets | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…7b2cbacked Nuggets | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…e776backed Nuggets | 30c | 50.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Nuggets | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Timberwolves | 70c | 41.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e6…0b97backed Nuggets | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…c05fbacked Timberwolves | 70c | 35.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e5…1dd0backed Timberwolves | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 416 | 54.8%228 W · 188 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb755…acbabacked Timberwolves | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Timberwolves | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x173c…52c8backed Timberwolves | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…88d5backed Timberwolves | 71c | 14.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.