College Football · resolved market
Spread: SMU Mustangs (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3669ae48a464bef320c9457e8efedd7ec9c34a20e34096cf7a8ed69c5faf59ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Californiaof SMU Mustangs, California
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked SMU Mustangs | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed California | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked California | 50c | 6,321$3,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,180.49 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 6,296$3,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,136.83 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed California | 48c | 6,010$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,124.2 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked SMU Mustangs | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 3,697$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.39 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed California | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked SMU Mustangs | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed California | 50c | 1,264$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.1 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…47e7backed California | 51c | 979.01$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed California | 49c | 956$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.56 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…0d9cbacked California | 59c | 580$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed SMU Mustangs | 42c | 530$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.4 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed California | 50c | 338$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.48 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked SMU Mustangs | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed California | 48c | 163.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed California | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked California | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked California | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed California | 57c | 96.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed SMU Mustangs | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked California | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed California | 50c | 54.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked SMU Mustangs | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed SMU Mustangs | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed SMU Mustangs | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked SMU Mustangs | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked California | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-13.5)this page
- SMU Mustangs vs. CaliforniaCalifornia won
- SMU Mustangs vs. California: O/U 52.5Over won
- SMU Mustangs vs. California: O/U 53.5Over won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-10.5)California won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-12.5)California won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.