Europa Conference League · resolved market
AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36a42982d23eaf291dce9e75ab3445b18a8abac67bd0e2171c22b996db9a252d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,827 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 7c | 1,238$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.33 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 46c | 1,136$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Under | 52c | 866.05$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 782.52$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.47 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 48c | 658.74$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 62c | 643.3$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.45 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 60c | 466.67$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 71c | 430.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 404.4$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.59 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Under | 5c | 401.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…cf07backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 67c | 399.99$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 48c | 325.52$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.27 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 12c | 285.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.48 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed Under | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8531…5eccbacked Over | 48c | 260.65$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 10c | 227.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.18 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 16c | 218.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.75 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 211.11$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.32 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 70c | 205.71$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Over | 11c | 198.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +844.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ef9bbacked Over | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 56c | 177.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Over | 48c | 167$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 67c | 150.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Over | 12c | 124.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Over | 9c | 111.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +117%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 10c | 100.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 48c | 79.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1911…ebf8backed Over | 67c | 56.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…1371backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked Over | 46c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 63c | 33.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 35c | 30.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 66c | 29.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 46c | 26.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 48c | 23.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…8550backed Under | 74c | 20.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5this page
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.