Europa Conference League · resolved market
AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20d0d6ea1f200b94ce63a676902f3ea37327746bcec569877573a8341c862b52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,635 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.98 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 73c | 2,309$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.5 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 27c | 1,697$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.22 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 1,319$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.43 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…3973backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 913.15$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.42 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…64cdbacked Over | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…0ad4backed Over | 71c | 611.27$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 370.23$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 29c | 312.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 26c | 217.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Over | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 28c | 195.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…9200backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…0332backed Over | 72c | 139$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…37e7backed Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 29c | 130.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8531…5eccbacked Over | 71c | 126.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…e31bbacked Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…586dbacked Over | 71c | 92.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 72c | 83.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 69c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…c65dbacked Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 28c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 71c | 56.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…3db9backed Under | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 72c | 47.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Under | 30c | 43.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…d203backed Over | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 71c | 31.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8d…67e1backed Over | 71c | 28.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…8ae5backed Over | 75c | 25.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 69c | 18.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…483abacked Over | 72c | 17.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…c7acbacked Over | 66c | 16.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…a03cbacked Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…b2cdbacked Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5this page
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.