Europa Conference League · resolved market
AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc74e80a168a7b12ab9706435cd6efeec5e7c0f653b3e4bbfac29fe70490ee6ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 5,854$2,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,209.9 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 20c | 2,960$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.97 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 2,529$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.84 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 16c | 1,582$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.55 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 77c | 726.66$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.32 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Under | 43c | 689.05$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 20c | 669.31$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.12 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 25c | 400.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 52c | 389.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 387.91$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e55…d06cbacked Under | 78c | 384.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 36c | 375$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 25c | 348$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 17c | 334$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed Under | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Under | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…7ad6backed Over | 25c | 207.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0592…49aabacked Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 76c | 198.68$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 19c | 180$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…a45dbacked Over | 76c | 179$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 70c | 149.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Under | 22c | 134.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Under | 78c | 128.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Under | 19c | 126.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…cea5backed Under | 39c | 104.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Over | 22c | 95.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +117%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Under | 50c | 89.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 54c | 89.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…1b8dbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Under | 41c | 80.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 77c | 77.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 20c | 73.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Over | 22c | 68.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…77aebacked Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 51c | 58.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…655bbacked Under | 78c | 52.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe63e…adafbacked Under | 77c | 47.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…319bbacked Over | 25c | 40.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 75c | 33.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Over | 38c | 28.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 76c | 20.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5this page
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.