MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36bc2f4655ae4511aeb249d30bb5c0a89d38626a18ca3e7405dfab495e3dc604
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3eec…df90backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 2,319$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.75 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 2,130$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.89 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 8c | 1,218$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 21c | 862.79$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Atlanta Braves | 56c | 838.45$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.92 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 476$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.96 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Atlanta Braves | 56c | 449.94$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.97 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 310.64$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.89 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Chicago Cubs | 21c | 303.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 196$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 185.88$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 86.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 82.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 80.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago Cubs | 28c | 70.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Atlanta Braves | 72c | 52.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 48.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 45.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Atlanta Braves | 74c | 44.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Atlanta Braves | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 38.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Atlanta Braves | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Atlanta Braves | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Atlanta Braves | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Atlanta Braves | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.