MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x313754f42f6db52b463bba4b19f1c590d4ed035e968888f5032c25c374fa8e17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 50c | 25,000$12,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,500 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 7,641$3,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,808.68 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,570 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 49c | 5,939$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,028.64 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 5,883$2,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,938.55 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.99 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 2,825$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.39 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 51c | 2,280$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 1,189$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.36 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 900 | 53.6%482 W · 418 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 50c | 940$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 64c | 602.9$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.45 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 572.11$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.06 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Over | 51c | 393$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.43 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 53c | 307.77$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.65 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 268.19$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 8c | 218$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…e965backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 25c | 193.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.41 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 188.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.41 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…7882backed Over | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 41c | 73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Over | 50c | 66.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 58c | 62.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 40c | 42.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 40.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 50c | 30.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 76c | 26.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 50c | 25.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…0550backed Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 57c | 21.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.