MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaadedb0fafa88d5904bdab17d21bf7ec0edaf29b833adfcaa96bb70a89a4e397
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 58c | 7,991$4,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,323.13 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf9…73bbbacked Over | 42c | 3,168$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 2,534$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.87 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 42c | 2,021$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.91 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 23c | 1,136$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.28 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 1,124$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 1,032$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.51 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d0…6219backed Under | 58c | 700$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 42c | 659.55$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.01 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 561.52$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 57c | 545.79$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.03 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b39…57e8backed Over | 42c | 471.43$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 29c | 456.26$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 58c | 377.61$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 27c | 347.95$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 76c | 340$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 58c | 319.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c20…4f3fbacked Over | 42c | 235.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Over | 43c | 229.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Over | 42c | 226.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 43c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 41c | 124.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 118.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 30c | 106$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…7980backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 58c | 86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 60c | 76.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 44c | 60.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 42c | 58.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 24c | 54.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…cbfbbacked Over | 42c | 47.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 46c | 34.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae40…9edabacked Under | 58c | 34.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9d38backed Over | 44c | 28.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 41c | 24.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Over | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 45c | 22.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 47c | 21.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.