MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b765ad63676b0c304aa9b50805fe470d020dd3559ec3a9afde9e3e827b5a645
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 2,340$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.69 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 963.69$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs | 24c | 572.5$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 522.71$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.31 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 314.47$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Chicago Cubs | 24c | 287.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 280$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 279.14$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.14 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 21c | 276$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 196$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 154$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 152.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 109.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 77.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Chicago Cubs | 18c | 73.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 70.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 52.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Atlanta Braves | 75c | 41.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Chicago Cubs | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 28.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 26.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 26.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 17.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Atlanta Braves | 77c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.