Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Siegemund vs. Keys (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36d6a63650ecadb836f929b2ac47add7a428e0ce9a43aeaff9440681d67ad34a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Siegemund of Siegemund , Keys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Keys | 33c | 16,177$5,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,290.27 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Siegemund | 59c | 11,563$6,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,755.49 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Keys | 26c | 3,573$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.29 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Keys | 19c | 2,680$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Keys | 35c | 2,134$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.04 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Siegemund | 16c | 1,588$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.95 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Keys | 39c | 1,361$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.89 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Siegemund | 15c | 1,300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Siegemund | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Siegemund | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4b02backed Siegemund | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +322.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Keys | 48c | 877.24$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.9 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Siegemund | 48c | 859$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.83 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Siegemund | 25c | 626.41$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.79 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Siegemund | 35c | 600$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Siegemund | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Siegemund | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Siegemund | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Siegemund | 34c | 585.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.47 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Keys | 45c | 501.62$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.61 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Siegemund | 13c | 400$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Siegemund | 17c | 237$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.71 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Siegemund | 64c | 228.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Siegemund | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Keys | 65c | 222$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Siegemund | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Siegemund | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…dde4backed Siegemund | 53c | 122.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d1…1fb2backed Siegemund | 47c | 121.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Keys | 23c | 119$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Siegemund | 22c | 117.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Siegemund | 36c | 109.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Keys | 58c | 108$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Keys | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…66e6backed Keys | 46c | 93.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Siegemund | 64c | 85.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…c43abacked Keys | 47c | 43.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…a3cabacked Siegemund | 74c | 38.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Siegemund | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…7084backed Siegemund | 56c | 21.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.