Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36ec06bf48325bf5b20db6be24e903b9e3342c7b8e13366b052552dc435d4e0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 74c | 413.38$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 410.91$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 397.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 262.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 40c | 206.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.79 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 197.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 184.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 177.55$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 173.94$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.01 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 163.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 142.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 131$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 77c | 124$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 14c | 99.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 16c | 99.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 98.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 11c | 95.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 17c | 93.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 79c | 88.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 75c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 87.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 44c | 69.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 25c | 67.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 55.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 27c | 42.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe568…7280backed No | 71c | 41.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 62c | 41.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 60c | 28.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 42c | 26.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 80c | 20.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 80c | 12.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.