College Football · resolved market
Spread: LSU (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3728002bf7aa6a7c25900bce37ceeb8cbfea90dfc73ccea212926d498ce4b51c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houstonof LSU, Houston
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed LSU | 47c | 3,301$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.25 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Houston | 53c | 3,195$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.19 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Houston | 53c | 151$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Houston | 51c | 143$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Houston | 50c | 131$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Houston | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Houston | 53c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…d267backed LSU | 48c | 60.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Houston | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Houston | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked LSU | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked LSU | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed LSU | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Houston | 53c | 37.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Houston | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed LSU | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed LSU | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed LSU | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed LSU | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked LSU | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed LSU | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked LSU | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed LSU | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked LSU | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed LSU | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed LSU | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed LSU | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Houston | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Houston | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: LSU (-0.5)this page
- LSU vs. HoustonHouston won
- LSU vs. Houston: 1H MoneylineHouston won
- LSU vs. Houston: O/U 42.5Over won
- O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Houston (-1.5)Houston won
- Spread: Houston (-2.5)Houston won
- Spread: Houston (-3.5)LSU won
- Spread: Houston (-3.5)LSU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.