College Football · resolved market
Spread: Houston (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95d8e8827992b74fac819666b360879ed4e50ec65dec9cde68752f9f5d799b80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houstonof Houston, LSU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x801e…ad90backed Houston | 51c | 58,043$29,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,444.96 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +7.6wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed LSU | 49c | 32,118$15,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,751.21 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Houston | 48c | 25,000$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,000 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed LSU | 52c | 19,578$10,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,180.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed LSU | 49c | 12,373$6,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,062.92 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked LSU | 49c | 7,259$3,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,560.8 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…f821backed LSU | 52c | 5,288$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked LSU | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Houston | 48c | 2,394$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.02 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked LSU | 52c | 2,237$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed LSU | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Houston | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed LSU | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed LSU | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed LSU | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed LSU | 50c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed LSU | 50c | 127$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Houston | 50c | 112.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed LSU | 52c | 111$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed LSU | 51c | 104.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked LSU | 52c | 97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked LSU | 52c | 85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…aa64backed LSU | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed LSU | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Houston | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Houston | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked LSU | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Houston | 48c | 45.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a93…7773backed Houston | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed LSU | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Houston | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Houston | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Houston | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed Houston | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed LSU | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed LSU | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Houston | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Houston | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Houston | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Houston | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Houston | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked LSU | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked LSU | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston (-1.5)this page
- LSU vs. HoustonHouston won
- LSU vs. Houston: 1H MoneylineHouston won
- LSU vs. Houston: O/U 42.5Over won
- O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Houston (-2.5)Houston won
- Spread: Houston (-3.5)LSU won
- Spread: Houston (-3.5)LSU won
- Spread: LSU (-0.5)Houston won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.