College Football · resolved market
Spread: Houston (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e9660bebadec70636a06cf8ff9e9d4d1a4bfd2e772ebc99b02d402f074f6b1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LSUof Houston, LSU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Houston | 54c | 290$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.79 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed LSU | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed LSU | 60c | 192$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked LSU | 61c | 176.88$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked LSU | 46c | 161.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Houston | 39c | 161.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed LSU | 69c | 130.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked LSU | 61c | 122$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed LSU | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed LSU | 60c | 117$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed LSU | 61c | 116$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked LSU | 61c | 97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked LSU | 60c | 91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked LSU | 60c | 72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed LSU | 61c | 69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed Houston | 40c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed LSU | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.4wins | +0.42per pick | 51cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed LSU | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…25dbbacked Houston | 39c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Houston | 40c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Houston | 39c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed LSU | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.41per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Houston | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Houston | 39c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -54%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Houston | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Houston | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Houston | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Houston | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Houston | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Houston | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Houston | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Houston | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Houston | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Houston | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Houston | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Houston | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Houston | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Houston | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Houston | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Houston | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Houston | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Houston | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Houston | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Houston | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Houston | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…06aabacked Houston | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed LSU | 50c | 21.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed LSU | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed LSU | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston (-3.5)this page
- LSU vs. HoustonHouston won
- LSU vs. Houston: 1H MoneylineHouston won
- LSU vs. Houston: O/U 42.5Over won
- O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Houston (-1.5)Houston won
- Spread: Houston (-2.5)Houston won
- Spread: Houston (-3.5)LSU won
- Spread: LSU (-0.5)Houston won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.