College Football · resolved market
Spread: Houston (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7ce83e8e0b3cc04e7e0463c5de5dca492b78336a17eca59ab1e1e72d214400e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LSUof Houston, LSU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Houston | 46c | 314.37$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed LSU | 60c | 307.61$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.78 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked LSU | 60c | 237.15$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.02 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed LSU | 59c | 221$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked LSU | 61c | 151$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Houston | 40c | 117.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed LSU | 61c | 103$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed LSU | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked LSU | 60c | 98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed LSU | 60c | 97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.41per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Houston | 38c | 88.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed LSU | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed LSU | 60c | 77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed LSU | 60c | 76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Houston | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed LSU | 59c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Houston | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Houston | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Houston | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Houston | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked LSU | 59c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Houston | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Houston | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Houston | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Houston | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Houston | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Houston | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Houston | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed LSU | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Houston | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Houston | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Houston | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Houston | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Houston | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Houston | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…854dbacked Houston | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Houston | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Houston | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Houston | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Houston | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Houston | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston (-3.5)this page
- LSU vs. HoustonHouston won
- LSU vs. Houston: 1H MoneylineHouston won
- LSU vs. Houston: O/U 42.5Over won
- O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Houston (-1.5)Houston won
- Spread: Houston (-2.5)Houston won
- Spread: Houston (-3.5)LSU won
- Spread: LSU (-0.5)Houston won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.