College Football · resolved market
Spread: Houston (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f04690705c3a32301e7581b5ea4d79eea13ff38af025226320b72aa459d2917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houstonof Houston, LSU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Houston | 47c | 8,531$4,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,521.79 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb4…96b0backed Houston | 48c | 8,199$3,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,265.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed LSU | 52c | 7,489$3,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,880.93 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked LSU | 53c | 4,166$2,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.98 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked LSU | 52c | 3,719$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.73 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked LSU | 53c | 2,556$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.68 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Houston | 48c | 1,187$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.24 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed LSU | 23c | 900$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Houston | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed LSU | 53c | 262.58$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.96 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Houston | 48c | 209.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Houston | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed LSU | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed LSU | 53c | 161$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ad…1052backed LSU | 54c | 157.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked LSU | 52c | 131$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed LSU | 54c | 130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed LSU | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed LSU | 54c | 118$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Houston | 47c | 114$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Houston | 48c | 109.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked LSU | 53c | 103$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Houston | 49c | 102.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Houston | 49c | 95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Houston | 48c | 82.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed LSU | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Houston | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed LSU | 53c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…92cbbacked Houston | 46c | 57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked LSU | 52c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Houston | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Houston | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Houston | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Houston | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Houston | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed LSU | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Houston | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed LSU | 54c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Houston | 46c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Houston | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked LSU | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked LSU | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Houston | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Houston | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Houston | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Houston | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Houston | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked LSU | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston (-2.5)this page
- LSU vs. HoustonHouston won
- LSU vs. Houston: 1H MoneylineHouston won
- LSU vs. Houston: O/U 42.5Over won
- O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Houston (-1.5)Houston won
- Spread: Houston (-3.5)LSU won
- Spread: Houston (-3.5)LSU won
- Spread: LSU (-0.5)Houston won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.