Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37596158e739adfdcd971983cef1eb991d03378934dcbea67112b9669ad544d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked No | 36c | 1,136$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 45c | 355.57$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.83 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 11c | 339.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 312.38$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.66 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 286.47$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…14b5backed Yes | 62c | 253.1$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 241.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 64c | 233.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 71c | 223.25$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 190.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.91 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 59c | 168.49$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e22…184abacked Yes | 46c | 124.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 47c | 119.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…1cd1backed Yes | 46c | 118.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 40c | 117.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 38c | 100.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 59c | 100.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 42c | 96.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 94.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…c06cbacked Yes | 51c | 93.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 39c | 89.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 35c | 75.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 39c | 70.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 37c | 69.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa3…b6cfbacked Yes | 49c | 67.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 38c | 58.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…8aeabacked Yes | 77c | 57.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 36c | 56.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 21c | 53.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…f27ebacked Yes | 35c | 53.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…4964backed Yes | 57c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 44.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 43c | 43.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 67c | 43.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 67c | 43.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…7107backed Yes | 56c | 41.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…fd91backed Yes | 61c | 39.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4f…2c34backed No | 72c | 38.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 52c | 38.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…0269backed No | 72c | 38.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked Yes | 42c | 31.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 47c | 29.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 65c | 29.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 48c | 28.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 74c | 24.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 58c | 24.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 62c | 24.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 62c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 70c | 21.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 70c | 21.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 20.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 65c | 19.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 68c | 17.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 58c | 17.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.