Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x092845bf8908cb94e6bf7ebcc5b2b6d9f01f2a8b324f1e900fdd5f7acb44c3d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 36c | 356.56$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 309.62$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 27c | 273.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…7a1cbacked Yes | 24c | 198.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 60c | 181.47$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…1b96backed No | 69c | 179.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 16c | 178.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed No | 51c | 178.44$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 52c | 161.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked No | 50c | 150.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…c06cbacked Yes | 64c | 150.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 38c | 145.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 128.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8503…abddbacked Yes | 43c | 120.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…c53fbacked Yes | 14c | 114.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 59c | 97.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 26c | 96.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Yes | 14c | 93.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 49c | 90.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed No | 80c | 88.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 78.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 15c | 66.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 44c | 65.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 64.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 63.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 78c | 62.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 54c | 62.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 78c | 61.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e22…184abacked Yes | 67c | 56.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…be89backed Yes | 36c | 56.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 52.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 50c | 52.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 51c | 51.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 49c | 49.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 47c | 48.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 28c | 46.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 24c | 46.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 41c | 42.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 34c | 41.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee9…014bbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 55c | 39.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…1cd1backed Yes | 59c | 39.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34bc…73babacked No | 59c | 37.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 35.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…295abacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…45b9backed No | 72c | 34.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 64c | 32.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 32.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…7375backed Yes | 65c | 31.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…f55dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 58c | 28.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 52c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 50c | 24.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 47c | 22.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d9…c748backed Yes | 51c | 22.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 50c | 21.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 60c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed No | 57c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 58c | 18.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 73c | 17.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.