TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Mercyhurst Lakers vs. Wagner Seahawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mercyhurst Lakersof Mercyhurst Lakers, Wagner Seahawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,749 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6218…f388backed Mercyhurst Lakers41c8,742$3,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,134.791154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Wagner Seahawks60c6,046$3,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,652.8635452.3%185 W · 169 L+17.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Wagner Seahawks55c2,609$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,435.1821636.1%78 W · 138 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Wagner Seahawks16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.631,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Wagner Seahawks57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5705152.9%27 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wagner Seahawks56c938.59$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.984,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mercyhurst Lakers44c800$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.51,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ae…f107backed Mercyhurst Lakers40c782.74$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.4542327.2%115 W · 308 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Mercyhurst Lakers43c648.41$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.592,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeec…9912backed Wagner Seahawks49c617.9$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid+20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Wagner Seahawks57c582.46$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33226254.2%142 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Mercyhurst Lakers43c580.02$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.613,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Mercyhurst Lakers44c549$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.81,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Mercyhurst Lakers44c515.97$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.62,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff7…3a9dbacked Wagner Seahawks19c434.6$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Wagner Seahawks52c388$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7281453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mercyhurst Lakers60c335.35$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.482,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Wagner Seahawks56c312.23$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.211,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mercyhurst Lakers49c267.52$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Wagner Seahawks55c253.09$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3636845.7%168 W · 200 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Mercyhurst Lakers47c248.71$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.8252928.4%150 W · 379 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Wagner Seahawks49c224.35$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.924,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Mercyhurst Lakers43c220.36$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.515,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed Mercyhurst Lakers42c212.62$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.3253646.5%249 W · 287 L-24.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Mercyhurst Lakers49c206.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0212642.1%53 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Mercyhurst Lakers47c199.99$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2473549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f29…9d73backed Wagner Seahawks56c190$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.48253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Wagner Seahawks57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019555.4%108 W · 87 L+14.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Wagner Seahawks57c172$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0474152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Wagner Seahawks57c172$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0410448.1%50 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Mercyhurst Lakers48c125$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6579448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Wagner Seahawks55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7534649.1%170 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Wagner Seahawks51c73.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7245953.8%247 W · 212 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Mercyhurst Lakers48c70.41$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7732343%139 W · 184 L-18.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Mercyhurst Lakers48c66.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.443951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb343…9813backed Mercyhurst Lakers38c60.53$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.611353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Wagner Seahawks60c59.85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7621059.5%125 W · 85 L+17.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Mercyhurst Lakers53c52.82$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.831,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e96…e9f8backed Mercyhurst Lakers44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.451546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick28cpaid+57.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Wagner Seahawks54c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.491,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Wagner Seahawks55c38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.945644.5%203 W · 253 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97f1…47a5backed Wagner Seahawks68c32.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221936.8%7 W · 12 L-4.5wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-42.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Wagner Seahawks49c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3153635.6%191 W · 345 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Wagner Seahawks53c30.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9635050.3%176 W · 174 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Mercyhurst Lakers75c29.4$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.422,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23d4…5607backed Wagner Seahawks58c27.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168737.9%33 W · 54 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Mercyhurst Lakers49c23.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.172,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f19…ec51backed Wagner Seahawks58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5822050.5%111 W · 109 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.