CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37677778a1c23a9e3d43f012c75fff47e68b0df5051c8b44f0815c6e110bf3b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rebels Gamingof Rebels Gaming, ASTRAL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,594 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed ASTRAL | 1c | 3,849$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked ASTRAL | 30c | 1,700$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed ASTRAL | 30c | 1,296$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.88 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8d…6fe9backed Rebels Gaming | 52c | 997.34$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.33 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed ASTRAL | 32c | 854.89$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.53 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Rebels Gaming | 70c | 804.92$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.48 | 245 | 38.4%94 W · 151 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c4…f0a4backed ASTRAL | 48c | 746.52$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.25 | 139 | 37.4%52 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ASTRAL | 46c | 546.58$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.95 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…87a3backed ASTRAL | 3c | 505.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Rebels Gaming | 71c | 475.89$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.26 | 807 | 44.6%360 W · 447 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b7…3c25backed ASTRAL | 31c | 409$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b4…834ebacked Rebels Gaming | 78c | 399.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd495…7bf2backed ASTRAL | 28c | 379.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…23d6backed Rebels Gaming | 69c | 338$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Rebels Gaming | 64c | 314.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.15 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ASTRAL | 27c | 313.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…f137backed Rebels Gaming | 52c | 307.36$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.36 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…dc1fbacked Rebels Gaming | 58c | 281.04$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.78 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rebels Gaming | 68c | 266.87$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1f…a252backed ASTRAL | 47c | 251$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.06 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Rebels Gaming | 54c | 243.47$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ce…e71bbacked Rebels Gaming | 66c | 227$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed ASTRAL | 45c | 221.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 676 | 51.8%350 W · 326 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4521…4789backed Rebels Gaming | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed ASTRAL | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Rebels Gaming | 55c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked ASTRAL | 43c | 195.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed ASTRAL | 33c | 191.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rebels Gaming | 67c | 190.96$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed ASTRAL | 41c | 189.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe2…0d54backed Rebels Gaming | 58c | 172.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…0c6cbacked Rebels Gaming | 70c | 159$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…5cf4backed Rebels Gaming | 71c | 140.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…e913backed Rebels Gaming | 52c | 132$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a9…e779backed ASTRAL | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Rebels Gaming | 41c | 122$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Rebels Gaming | 74c | 111.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…1f08backed ASTRAL | 20c | 100.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Rebels Gaming | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked ASTRAL | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 246 | 33.3%82 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…b8fabacked Rebels Gaming | 51c | 92.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Rebels Gaming | 58c | 86.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 144 | 39.6%57 W · 87 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…68f8backed Rebels Gaming | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Rebels Gaming | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…c533backed Rebels Gaming | 69c | 71.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 222 | 56.8%126 W · 96 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…1221backed Rebels Gaming | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +498%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed ASTRAL | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…b0debacked Rebels Gaming | 54c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed ASTRAL | 35c | 61.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Rebels Gaming | 48c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked ASTRAL | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Rebels Gaming | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…c922backed ASTRAL | 34c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed ASTRAL | 34c | 49.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382d…eb3abacked Rebels Gaming | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 252 | 50.4%127 W · 125 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…7c8bbacked Rebels Gaming | 51c | 37.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…e118backed ASTRAL | 39c | 36.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b08…750cbacked Rebels Gaming | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a9…f5dfbacked ASTRAL | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…98b8backed Rebels Gaming | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked ASTRAL | 31c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…22e0backed ASTRAL | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…a140backed Rebels Gaming | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…8306backed Rebels Gaming | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…70a2backed Rebels Gaming | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…31cbbacked Rebels Gaming | 79c | 25.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Rebels Gaming | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Rebels Gaming | 71c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Rebels Gaming | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…25e3backed Rebels Gaming | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…0154backed Rebels Gaming | 77c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c7…6278backed Rebels Gaming | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ASTRAL - Map 1 WinnerRebels Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ASTRAL - Map 2 WinnerASTRAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.