Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37a6608e8cb4c216d6fed0bff9a4a7423510e6e11482276cdb825bbdff5d4981
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 76c | 745.09$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.97 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 311.46$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.52 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…2e8abacked Yes | 70c | 298.26$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 185.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 174.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 174$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 36c | 155.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 33c | 152.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 152.73$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 137$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 39c | 128.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 113.57$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 50c | 95.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 52c | 94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 59c | 92.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 83.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 63c | 62.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 50c | 62.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 61.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 57.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…c095backed Yes | 40c | 54.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 52.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 49c | 51.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 51.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…ce4cbacked Yes | 67c | 49.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 61c | 45.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 56c | 44.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 61c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 43.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 60c | 42.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 44c | 41.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 32c | 40.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 60c | 39.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 39.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 27c | 37.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 37.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 36.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed No | 57c | 35.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 59c | 33.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 31.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 71c | 31.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed No | 61c | 30.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 26.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 25.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 62c | 22.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 20.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c1…690cbacked No | 62c | 20.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 72c | 20.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 19.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 78c | 18.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…baf4backed No | 65c | 17.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.