Mls · resolved market
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37a742044dd31efa0c0a69b7c72a1a01bdaebba9db17bb46ebdd62b646f738a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,171 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 3,846$2,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.79 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 1,740$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.2 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,232$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.59 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…14f5backed Yes | 24c | 801.76$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.95 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 646.52$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.84 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed No | 77c | 521.43$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 23c | 458.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0359…4fc7backed No | 75c | 387.01$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf917…8ca4backed Yes | 25c | 387.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 367.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 19c | 217$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 23c | 208.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 29c | 205.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 24c | 185.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 23c | 171.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes | 31c | 157.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…3102backed Yes | 30c | 144.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Yes | 27c | 129.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…47acbacked Yes | 26c | 119.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 24c | 105.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 103.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf0…8b2bbacked No | 77c | 103.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8a…f0b8backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…e944backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Yes | 30c | 93.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d02bbacked No | 77c | 88.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 71c | 75.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 70.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed No | 77c | 64.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 70c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 28c | 51.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 33c | 51.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…ce4fbacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 23c | 47.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Yes | 22c | 47.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 24c | 46.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 71c | 46.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 77c | 44.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b6…2be5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 28c | 38.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Yes | 33c | 38.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…dcafbacked Yes | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 70c | 30.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 80c | 17.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed No | 72c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?this page
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.