Mls · resolved market
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d3d0e2cbcfda4764d3e756dff70441c0fd7881124022a686431e608e5742017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,117 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 18c | 13,937$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,448.29 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 47c | 7,616$3,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,054 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 16c | 5,089$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,274.63 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 16c | 5,024$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,220.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked No | 49c | 4,007$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,952.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…08a9backed Yes | 54c | 3,670$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,499$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,074.17 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 2,484$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.58 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 49c | 2,081$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.35 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbc…c413backed Yes | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 34c | 1,414$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.72 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 50c | 985.51$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.46 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 51c | 925$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.76 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 59c | 812.73$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.93 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 17c | 700.66$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.04 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 50c | 499.05$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.65 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 46c | 458.79$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.19 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…39c8backed Yes | 16c | 457.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 13c | 428.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Yes | 80c | 409.42$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 63c | 405.9$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.06 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 47c | 339.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 33c | 316.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.96 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked No | 49c | 290.89$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 40c | 270$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 43c | 243.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Yes | 52c | 241.31$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.22 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…8a16backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…a0f5backed Yes | 18c | 200.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.98 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Yes | 54c | 186.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb012…0136backed Yes | 73c | 168.71$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 16c | 156$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.45 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…2723backed Yes | 20c | 139.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed No | 65c | 125.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 113.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Yes | 39c | 108.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 57c | 106.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 64c | 98.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Yes | 62c | 93.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked No | 59c | 92.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 54c | 84.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Yes | 46c | 78.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 52c | 59.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 24c | 56.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked Yes | 64c | 50.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…b286backed Yes | 54c | 46.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 57c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 40c | 41.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…b2a8backed Yes | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…a32ebacked Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked Yes | 51c | 35.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 55c | 33.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…a686backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4660…de99backed Yes | 67c | 29.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafeb…5cd2backed Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ce…f240backed Yes | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?No won
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.