Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37b6a061ff6b9c58dec86bb9f6c4c671cd9723571946cd5cb878ed84630e722f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 30,934$24,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,673.25 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 77c | 21,108$16,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,837.65 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 21c | 10,868$2,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.97 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 14c | 8,322$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.01 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 21c | 5,572$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.93 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 13c | 3,618$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.68 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 18c | 2,267$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.38 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…0607backed Yes | 19c | 1,100$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 19c | 861.25$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.78 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…02d2backed No | 77c | 717.87$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.11 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 80c | 565.43$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.9 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…f56fbacked Yes | 21c | 543.22$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…b441backed Yes | 6c | 471.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 80c | 340$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Yes | 19c | 329.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 76c | 329$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 80c | 230$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 23c | 207.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…d788backed Yes | 19c | 195.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 20c | 190.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 77c | 161.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 18c | 149$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Yes | 19c | 145.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Yes | 13c | 137.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…2e36backed Yes | 23c | 117.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Yes | 19c | 111.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d9f7backed Yes | 15c | 98.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed No | 79c | 98.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 18c | 97.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…a13cbacked Yes | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 18c | 88.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 22c | 86.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 18c | 69.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Yes | 22c | 67.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 20c | 64.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 20c | 64.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 20c | 53.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 79c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7c…1549backed No | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0664…f7f0backed No | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-24?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.