Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49a376a871f7450b68ffc1d51d9e13da7db603381fe938c0b7a4b3f4e50b084b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $267,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $284,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 5c | 80,875$4,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,008.93 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 14c | 23,250$3,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,208.02 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Yes | 14c | 4,467$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 10c | 3,460$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.29 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 9c | 1,959$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.84 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 15c | 1,897$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.17 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 14c | 1,470$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.31 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…0607backed Yes | 11c | 1,100$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 13c | 1,034$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 13c | 879.68$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99b5…8d41backed Yes | 11c | 854.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 11c | 788.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebae…fb79backed Yes | 13c | 729.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…e3cfbacked Yes | 15c | 632.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +271.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 14c | 499.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d2…ba56backed Yes | 15c | 449.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 12c | 325.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa202…9b12backed Yes | 14c | 311.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…66b3backed Yes | 13c | 290.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Yes | 10c | 261.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 15c | 253.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 13c | 221.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Yes | 13c | 211.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 15c | 208.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Yes | 14c | 204.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…f56fbacked Yes | 16c | 200.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…d9c3backed Yes | 14c | 199.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes | 15c | 189.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 11c | 170.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 15c | 166$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 13c | 152.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 13c | 145.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…b809backed Yes | 14c | 143.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 12c | 141.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 13c | 133.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 13c | 133.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…b823backed Yes | 10c | 128.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9bc…b282backed Yes | 15c | 126.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 13c | 122.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 10c | 112.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 13c | 97.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 15c | 94.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 13c | 78.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 14c | 74.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4d…8bf1backed Yes | 15c | 69.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-24?this page
- Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.